Opportuna Newsletter #9 | Jun-25

Signs of liquidity are reappearing. Fintech listings are back and seeing pops - while stablecoins are edging closer to mainstream infrastructure. Both indicate improving confidence in the market’s plumbing.

Travel wise, I am looking forward to spending a month in the Bay area. We are meeting with companies, GPs, business angels and builders, as we look to find good secondary opportunities. If you know of people we should meet, please DM!

This edition remains focused on the convergence of private and public tech investing. As it is GENIUS Act week, “Chart of the Month” documents the 50% increase in Stablecoin issued. In “Current Topics”, we revisit recent semiconductors exits through M&A. As we argued in the May edition, the semiconductor stack is rewiring under AI’s weight. AMD and Qualcomm are buying their way into new positions. That reshapes incentives and raises the floor for late-stage private companies with differentiated IP. In our “Long-Term theme” we explore the 3rd revolution in Mobile Computing, as OS dominance of the last decade is quietly eroded by agent-led interfaces. As with semis, the stack is being rebuilt. The owners of distribution tomorrow won’t look like those who own it today!

You can see past editions here. Anybody can sign up following this link.

🚨 Highlights of the Month

Three themes stood out this month.

Fintech IPOs are making a comeback. In recent weeks, eToro (May 14), Circle (June 5), and Chime (June 12) all debuted on the public markets. Each closed their IPO day sharply up: 29%, 168%, and 37%, respectively. That may look like underpricing - and it is - but it buys goodwill. Strong debuts foster good press, which feeds confidence. Two of the three (eToro and Circle) now trade above their last private round. Chime, however, is down 44% from its SoftBank-led 2021 valuation. That may sound discouraging, but it’s actually a healthy signal: the IPO market is starting to price reality, and private markets are beginning to accept it.

Retailisation marches on. A recent article shed light on BlackRock’s growing influence via model portfolios. These rules-based allocations are being adopted en masse by wealth managers, now driving tens of billions in capital flows. In one case, BlackRock’s addition of an ETF in late May sent the AUM of its iShares AI Innovation and Tech Active ETF from $144 million to $1.5 billion in three days. “We’re getting more options to access the full capabilities of capital markets, across private and public markets,” said Eve Cout, head of U.S. wealth solutions at BlackRock. But not everyone is cheering. Moody’s issued a warning last week: retail flows into private markets come with reputational risk, higher costs, and potential systemic stress.

Stablecoins are having a moment. The U.S. Senate advanced the GENIUS Act, offering long-awaited clarity on stablecoin regulation. Circle’s IPO burnished the trend, highlighting transparency and liquidity as the new north stars. Meanwhile, Amazon and Walmart are reportedly exploring proprietary stablecoins, signaling that stablecoins are graduating from crypto curiosity to corporate strategy. Stripe reinforced the momentum, acquiring Privy - the infrastructure behind 75 million crypto wallets. The deal follows Stripe’s rollout of stablecoin accounts and its earlier acquisition of Bridge. All signs point to stablecoins becoming embedded infrastructure in the next phase of global payments.

📈 Chart of the Month: 50% Increase in Stablecoins Issued

🌐 Current Topics: Silicon M&A

The May-25 edition mentioned a silicon renaissance. It turns out it is shopping season in Semiland with four acquisitions in two weeks. Earlier this month, Qualcomm announced the $2.4bn acquisition of Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. AMD acquired 3 firms: Untether AI - an AI edge / inference chip designer, Brium - an AI software and compiler firm, and Enosemi - a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm.

With Alphawave, Qualcomm hopes to offset its weakness in HPC and AI accelerators by offering an alternative to Nividia’s tightly integrated monolithic dies and NVLink. Together, Qualcomm + Alphawave could deliver a disaggregated, scalable and power efficient alternative. As for AMD, its acquisitions suggest it is trying to replicate Nividia’s integration moat (GPU, interconnect, software) via M&A focused on inference + photonics + software stack.

Untether AI brings ultra-efficient edge inference capabilities using near-memory compute (like d-Matrix). Brium offers a Compiler/software stack IP to enable AMD to optimize across full AI pipelines (similar to Nvidia’s full-stack CUDA + TensorRT). Enosemi adds silicon photonics + co-packaged optics IP, giving AMD competitive tools for interconnecting in AI training clusters (vs Nvidia Infiniband and NVSwitch).

The private companies we mapped in the May edition are directly affected—some positively, others negatively.

Among the beneficiaries, we see Ayar Labs (Optical I/O) & Celestial AI (Optical Interconnect) as validated by Enosemi’s acquisition. This should lead to increased VC interest and potential acquisition interest from Intel, Broadcom, or hyperscalers. They could also emerge as partners for AMD or Qualcomm, particularly if further photonics IP or co-packaged optics integration is needed. Beyond photonics, Untether AI’s exit shows the growing appetite for edge inference startups. SiMa.ai (MLSoC) and d-Matrix (digital in-memory compute) are now in the spotlight and are likely the next targets for acquisition or strategic partnership. Companies like Tenstorrent (RISC-V inference/training chips) might attract more strategic investment as AMD and others diversify ISA and execution models. Finally, companies like Brium are gaining as compiler/software innovation becomes acquisition-worthy. Expect rising valuations and more activity around firms building alternatives to Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem.

Among the potentially threatened companies, Lambda’s current edge in offering customizable GPU infrastructure for AI researchers will erode if AMD/Qualcomm offer better software + hardware integration. Nvidia may continue to secure demand via CUDA and DGX, making it harder for Lambda to differentiate. As for EdgeQ, Qualcomm’s strength in edge + 5G, combined with Alphawave's IP, make it a formidable player. Finally, if AMD successfully integrates its recent stack, RISC-V competitors like Tenstorrent will face greater challenges in attracting adoption unless they can offer equally strong software and infra support.

AMD and Qualcomm are building a "Nvidia alternative", not by copying, but by disaggregating and reconstructing the stack with specialization (inference, optics, edge). Expect more acquisitions in the optical, compiler, and AI edge silicon segments. This raises the floor for several companies in the private market (e.g., Ayar Labs, Celestial AI, d-Matrix, SiMa.ai). VCs and strategics will now view companies with deep IP + system-level thinking as much more valuable.

🧭LT: Agents Are The New OS

Samsung’s talks with Perplexity triggered a realization: we may be entering mobile computing’s third act. As iOS and Android once dethroned Nokia and BlackBerry, tomorrow’s gatekeepers could be AI agents like OpenAI, Perplexity, or yet-unknown startups.

For the past decade, mobile OS owners have controlled distribution. App stores, pre-installs, and UI layers ensured they remained the intermediaries between users and services. China was an exception, birthing super-apps like WeChat. But elsewhere, Apple and Google kept the upper hand. That dominance is now under threat.

An AI assistant that handles tasks via conversation, without requiring a dozen apps, is emerging as a new interface layer. It generates UIs and API calls on demand, becoming a dynamic super-app. In this model, users talk, and the agent acts. For consumers, it’s seamless. For OS owners, it’s a problem. If users spend time in an AI front-end built by someone else, the OS risks becoming invisible infrastructure.

Google isn’t standing still. At MWC 2025, it showed off Gemini integrations with Motorola, Honor, and Oppo. But it’s in a race. Perplexity is preloading its assistant on Motorola phones. Samsung is considering a deeper partnership—even investing in Perplexity. Deutsche Telekom has announced a Perplexity-powered “AI Phone.” Telefonica is also on board. If agents become default gateways, whoever controls them controls the flow of attention, transactions, and data.

That has consequences for developers. Instead of launching apps, users might issue intents – such as “book me a flight,” “find a restaurant and arrange transportation” - leaving the agent to select the service. Developers must now optimize not for app store rankings, but for AI discoverability and compatibility. It’s a new kind of SEO - search engine optimization reimagined for agents.

The power shift mirrors earlier platform wars. As in search, social, and mobile, whoever owns the interface owns the user. Monetization will follow: referrals, subscriptions, data insights. But so will scrutiny. Privacy, bias, and lock-in risks loom large. Regulators may soon ask: Who decides which service your agent chooses? And why?

By 2030, the most strategic question in consumer tech may no longer be “What’s your OS?” but “Who runs your agent?” That answer will determine not just who wins in mobile - but who controls the broader digital economy.

📌 Conclusion

That’s it for this edition - chip stacks and power shifts. As Qualcomm and AMD scramble to reassemble the AI hardware-software stack through M&A, private companies with deep IP are entering a new phase of strategic value. We see rising acquisition interest in edge inference, optical interconnects, and compiler ecosystems – early signal flares for the late-stage private market.

Meanwhile, the mobile OS hierarchy is being redrawn. AI agents are emerging as the new interface layer - turning platforms like Perplexity from curiosities into distribution gatekeepers. The next platform war won’t be about devices or apps - it will be about who mediates intent.

If you’re operating or investing at this intersection of compute, control, and capital, we’d love to connect.

If you are seeking tailored liquidity solutions or quality private market exposure, we would love to hear from you and explore new opportunities together. Please get in touch here.

We look forward to an exciting year ahead.

Warmest regards,
The Opportuna Team